FINANCE · RENT VS BUY
Rent vs buy and housing stress test
If you live in the same area for 5, 10, 20 or 30 years, how could renting plus investing differ from buying? The model also asks how fast prices must rise to break even, and how much of a decline the buying case can absorb. It does not predict prices.
Scenario model · stays in your browserHome prices, rent, interest rates and investment returns are uncertain. This tool compares assumptions. It is not a market forecast.
Price scenarios
These are stress-test assumptions, not AmpCub forecasts.
Net worth over time
BuyingRenting plus investing
Holding period
| Year | Buy net worth | Renting plus investing net worth | Difference | In words |
|---|
Stress matrix
Each cell is buying net worth minus renting net worth. Color depth shows magnitude only, not which choice is better.
Price drop cases
| Year | Drop from purchase price | Home value | Remaining loan | Equity | Rent assets | Buy minus rent |
|---|
Population and households
No regional population data is available.
Actual-price reference
Why not compare only rent and the mortgage payment?
A mortgage payment includes principal. The down payment has an opportunity cost. Buying has transaction costs. A home has ownership costs. The monthly gap while renting can be invested.
If population falls, must home prices fall?
Housing demand also depends on households, household size, income, interest rates, jobs, migration, new supply, land supply and local projects. A population decline does not mean prices must move the same way.
Why look at households?
Even if total population falls, the number of households can still rise when average household size falls.
What is a break-even home price?
If prices only need to rise about 0.8% a year for buying and renting-plus-investing to be close after 15 years, then 0.8% is the threshold under the current assumptions.
Can a price decline be tested?
Yes. The model accepts -1%, -2%, -3% and a custom rate, including a negative path and up to three phases. Nothing here is a forecast.
Related tools
Prices, rent, down payments, loans, returns and results stay in the browser. They are not written to the URL, storage or analytics.